A new political poll has revealed that Democratic candidate James Talarico is currently leading both potential Republican opponents in the race for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat, marking a notable development in a state that has maintained Republican control for three decades.
The survey, conducted by The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin between April 10 and April 20, gathered responses from 1,200 registered Texas voters regarding upcoming elections, international military actions, and economic conditions. The results indicate that Texas voters may be receptive to political change amid rising fuel costs and concerns about federal policies.
Talarico, currently serving as a state House representative, secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat after defeating U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary election. The Republican side remains unsettled, with neither incumbent Senator John Cornyn nor Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton achieving the required 50 percent threshold to avoid a May 26 runoff election.
According to the poll, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percent, Talarico maintains a seven-point advantage over Cornyn, with 40 percent support compared to Cornyn’s 33 percent. Nineteen percent of respondents expressed no opinion, while 7 percent indicated support for other candidates. Against Paxton, Talarico’s lead expands to eight points, garnering 42 percent to Paxton’s 34 percent, with similar undecided and third-party percentages.
These findings align with separate polling data from Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan research organization. Their survey of 1,865 likely voters between April 17 and April 20 showed Talarico leading Cornyn by three points and Paxton by five points, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The polling data reveals strong Democratic unity behind Talarico, with at least 80 percent of Democratic voters supporting his candidacy. Additionally, he has attracted modest crossover appeal, securing 10 percent of Republican voters in a potential matchup against Cornyn and 11 percent against Paxton. Independent voters show significant preference for Talarico, with 36 percent supporting him over Cornyn’s 13 percent, and 39 percent favoring him over Paxton’s 14 percent.
Republican voters maintain majority support for their party’s candidates, with 60 percent backing Cornyn and 63 percent supporting Paxton in hypothetical matchups against Talarico. Both Republican candidates have positioned themselves as allies of President Donald Trump’s agenda during his administration’s final two years. Trump indicated on March 4 through a Truth Social post that he might endorse one of the Republican candidates.
The Senate race polling contrasts with other statewide contests in Texas. Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican incumbent, leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 44 percent to 38 percent. In the lieutenant governor race, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick holds a 35 percent to 31 percent advantage over Democratic state representative Vikki Goodwin.
The survey also explored voter sentiment on broader issues affecting their electoral decisions. Regarding U.S. military involvement in Iran, 36 percent of respondents strongly disapproved of current actions, while 24 percent strongly approved. Opposition to deploying ground troops in Iran was particularly strong among Democrats at 75 percent and Independents at 68 percent. Republicans showed more divided opinions, with 55 percent either strongly or somewhat supporting such deployment.
Economic concerns emerged as a significant factor, with 61 percent of Texans expressing serious worry about gasoline and energy prices. Additionally, 51 percent believed the economy would suffer from increased tariffs on foreign trade partners. When asked about personal impact from tariffs, 83 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Independents reported negative effects, while Republicans were split, with 28 percent saying tariffs helped and 29 percent reporting harm.
Overall economic sentiment remained pessimistic, with 55 percent of voters believing the economy had worsened. However, future outlook showed mixed feelings, as 38 percent expressed optimism about improvements within the next year, while 35 percent anticipated continued decline.
The Texas Politics Project plans to release updated polling data in June, following the Republican runoff election that will determine Talarico’s general election opponent.
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