Kentucky voters are heading to the polls in a primary that could reshape the state’s congressional delegation and test Republican loyalty to former President Donald Trump. The contest pits Rep. Thomas Massie, a seven-term congressman from the 4th District, against Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL who has won Trump’s endorsement and helped turn the race into one of the costliest primaries in U.S. history.
Massie, who has represented northern and north-central Kentucky since 2012, has frequently broken with the party’s mainstream positions on issues ranging from the war in Iran to documents tied to Jeffrey Epstein, drawing the ire of Trump and some party activists. Gallrein was relatively unknown before entering the race but has benefited from the president’s support and heavy spending; total expenditures in the Massie-Gallrein contest have topped $25 million, officials said.
Recent polling has tightened. A Quantus Insights survey released May 13, conducted among 908 likely Republican primary voters, showed Gallrein at 53% and Massie at 45% once undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate were allocated. Earlier polls had shown Massie leading by several points.
Steve Voss, associate professor and publicity director of the political science department at the University of Kentucky, said the primary tests competing priorities within the Republican base. “Voters in the 4th Congressional District and increasingly in the Senate race are being asked to choose between party unity and a candidate pledging fealty to Trump’s agenda, versus a candidate favored more by party activists who care about ideological purity,” Voss said.
The primary occurs against the backdrop of a competitive U.S. Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mitch McConnell. McConnell, who has served in the Senate since 1985 and is 84, announced he would step down in February 2025, opening a seat Democrats see as an opportunity to flip.
On the Republican side for Senate, Trump endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Barr on May 1, prompting earlier frontrunner Nate Morris to withdraw and accept an ambassadorship in the administration. Former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, an early contender, has seen support decline since Barr’s endorsement. A poll conducted May 9-11 by UpONE Insights on Barr’s behalf showed Barr with a 19-point lead over Cameron.
Democrats are consolidating behind state Rep. Charles Booker, who has a sizable advantage over Amy McGrath, the 2020 Senate candidate who previously raised significant funds but lost by 20 points. An Emerson College poll from March showed Booker leading McGrath by 18 points.
Barr’s decision to run for Senate also opened his 6th Congressional District seat, producing a crowded field on both sides. Democrats include Zach Dembo, a former Navy judge advocate general officer, and Cherlynn Stevenson, a former state representative. Other Democratic candidates named in the race are David Kloiber and Erin Petrey. Republicans competing in the primary include Ralph Alvarado, who served as commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health, and state Rep. Ryan Dotson.
Voss noted that partisanship can play a stronger role in House races because voters often rely on party labels for lesser-known candidates, while Senate contests are higher profile and can draw outsized outside attention and funding. He added that Democrats view the Kentucky Senate contest as a potential vehicle to divert Republican resources and influence the balance of the U.S. Senate heading into November’s midterms.
Early, in-person voting in Kentucky began Thursday, with counties opening multiple polling locations for limited hours. Polls will be open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
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